facebook twitter instagram linkedin google youtube vimeo tumblr yelp rss email podcast blog search brokercheck brokercheck
%POST_TITLE% Thumbnail

Quarterly Market Review Q4 2017

Fourth Quarter 2017

Market SummaryWorld Stock Market Performance
World Asset ClassesUS Stocks
International Developed StocksEmerging Markets Stocks
Select Country PerformanceSelect Country Performance vs. US Dollar
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)Commodities
Fixed IncomeImpact of Diversification


Market Summary

Index Returns

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: US Stock Market (Russell 3000 Index), International Developed Stocks (MSCI World ex USA Index [net div.]), Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging Markets Index [net div.]), Global Real Estate (S&P Global REIT Index [net div.]), US Bond Market (Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index), and Global Bond ex US Market (Citi WGBI ex USA 1−30 Years [Hedged to USD]). The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg. Citi fixed income indices © 2018 by Citigroup.

World Stock Market Performance

MSCI All Country World Index with selected headlines from Q4 2017

These headlines are not offered to explain market returns. Instead, they serve as a reminder that investors should view daily events from a long-term perspective and avoid making investment decisions based solely on the news.


Graph Source: MSCI ACWI Index [net div.]. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved.

It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

MSCI All Country World Index with selected headlines from past 12 months.

Short term (Q1 2017- Q4 2017)

These headlines are not offered to explain market returns. Instead, they serve as a reminder that investors should view daily events from a long-term perspective and avoid making investment decisions based solely on the news.


Graph Source: MSCI ACWI Index [net div.]. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved.

It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

World Asset Classes

Fourth Quarter 2017 Index Returns (%)

  • Looking at broad market indices, emerging markets outperformed US and non-US developed markets during the quarter. 
  • The value effect was negative in the US, non-US developed markets, and emerging markets. Small caps outperformed large caps in non-US developed markets and emerging markets but underperformed in the US.    

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.

The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved. Dow Jones data (formerly Dow Jones Wilshire) provided by Dow Jones Indices. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg. Treasury bills © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield).

US Stocks

Fourth Quarter 2017 Index Returns

  • The US equity market posted a positive return for the quarter, outperforming non-US developed markets but underperforming emerging markets. 
  • Value underperformed growth in the US across large and small cap indices.
  • Overall, small caps in the US underperformed large caps.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Marketwide (Russell 3000 Index), Large Cap (Russell 1000 Index), Large Cap Value (Russell 1000 Value Index), Large Cap Growth (Russell 1000 Growth Index), Small Cap (Russell 2000 Index), Small Cap Value (Russell 2000 Value Index), and Small Cap Growth (Russell 2000 Growth Index). World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. Russell 3000 Index is used as the proxy for the US market. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved.

International Developed Stocks

Fourth Quarter 2017 Index Returns

  • In US dollar terms, developed markets underperformed the US and emerging markets during the quarter.
  • Looking at market indices, the value effect was negative.
  • Small caps outperformed large caps in non-US developed markets. 

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Large Cap (MSCI World ex USA Index), Small Cap (MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Index), Value (MSCI World ex USA Value Index), and Growth (MSCI World ex USA Growth). All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. MSCI World ex USA IMI Index is used as the proxy for the International Developed market. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes.

Emerging Markets Stocks

Fourth Quarter 2017 Index Returns

  • In US dollar terms, emerging markets outperformed the US and non-US developed markets during the quarter.  
  • Looking at broad market indices, the value effect was negative.
  • Small caps outperformed large caps in emerging markets.  

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Large Cap (MSCI Emerging Markets Index), Small Cap (MSCI Emerging Markets Small Cap Index), Value (MSCI Emerging Markets Value Index), and Growth (MSCI Emerging Markets Growth Index). All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index used as the proxy for the emerging market portion of the market. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes.

Select Country Performance

Fourth Quarter 2017 Index Returns

  • In US dollar terms, Singapore and Japan recorded the highest country performance in developed markets, while Sweden and Italy posted the lowest returns for the quarter. In emerging markets, South Africa and India posted the highest country returns, while Pakistan and Mexico had the lowest performance. 

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Country performance based on respective indices in the MSCI World ex US IMI Index (for developed markets), MSCI USA IMI Index (for US), and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. All returns in USD and net of withholding tax on dividends. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved. UAE and Qatar have been reclassified as emerging markets by MSCI, effective May 2014.

Select Currency Performance vs. US Dollar

Fourth Quarter 2017

  • In developed markets, the Israeli shekel and the Singapore dollar both appreciated over 1.6%, while the Norwegian krone depreciated approximately 3% during the quarter. In emerging markets, the South African rand appreciated more than 9%, while the Mexican peso depreciated over 7%.  

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.

MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved.

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)

Fourth Quarter 2017 Index Returns

  • Non-US real estate investment trusts outperformed      US REITs.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Number of REIT stocks and total value based on the two indices. All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. Total value of REIT stocks represented by Dow Jones US Select REIT Index and the S&P Global ex US REIT Index. Dow Jones US Select REIT Index used as proxy for the US market, and S&P Global ex US REIT Index used as proxy for the World ex US market. Dow Jones US Select REIT Index data provided by Dow Jones ©. S&P Global ex US REIT Index data provided by Standard and Poor's Index Services Group © 2018.

Commodities

Fourth Quarter 2017 Index Returns

  • The Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return gained 4.71% in the fourth quarter, bringing the 2017 total annual return to 1.70%. 
  • Petroleum led quarterly performance. Brent crude oil returned 18.87%, and WTI crude oil gained 15.64%. Grains was the worst-performing complex, with Chicago wheat and Kansas wheat declining by 8.46% and 7.19%, respectively. 

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index is not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.

All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. Securities and commodities data provided by Bloomberg.

Fixed Income

Fourth Quarter 2017 Index Returns

  • Interest rate changes across the US fixed income market were mixed during the fourth quarter. The yield on the 5-year Treasury note rose 28 basis points (bps), ending at 2.20%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note increased 7 bps to 2.40%. The 30-year Treasury bond yield decreased 12 bps to finish at 2.74%.
  • In terms of total returns, short-term corporate bonds declined 0.04% during the quarter but increased 1.85% for the year. Intermediate-term corporate bonds gained 0.17% for the quarter and 3.92% for the year.
  • The total returns for short-term municipal bonds were –0.65% for the quarter and 1.61% for the year. Intermediate-term municipal bonds fell 0.09% for the quarter but gained 4.70% for the year. Revenue bonds outperformed general obligation bonds for the year.

     

One basis point equals 0.01%. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Yield curve data from Federal Reserve. State and local bonds are from the S&P National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Index. AAA-AA Corporates represent the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporates, AA-AAA rated. A-BBB Corporates represent the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporates, BBB-A rated. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg.  US long-term bonds, bills, inflation, and fixed income factor data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation (SBBI) Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). Citi fixed income indices © 2018 by Citigroup. ICE BofAML index data © 2018 ICE Data Indices, LLC. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group.

Impact of Diversification

Fourth Quarter 2017 Index Returns

  • These portfolios illustrate the performance of different global stock/bond mixes. Mixes with larger allocations to stocks are considered riskier but have higher expected returns over time.

 

1.STDEV (standard deviation) is a measure of the variation or dispersion of a set of data points. Standard deviations are often used to quantify the historical return volatility of a security or portfolio.  

Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Asset allocations and the hypothetical index portfolio returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual performance. Global Stocks represented by MSCI All Country World Index (gross div.) and Treasury Bills represented by US One-Month Treasury Bills. Globally diversified allocations rebalanced monthly, no withdrawals. Data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved. Treasury bills © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield).

Important Risk Disclosures

The fast price swings in commodities and currencies will result in significant volatility in an investor's holdings.
Currency Risk -because the security invests in stocks denominated in foreign currencies, changes in currency exchange
rates may negatively impact the securities return. The values of the foreign currencies may be subject to a high degree of
fluctuation due to changes in interest rates, the TS-8 effects of monetary policies issued by the United States, foreign
governments, central banks or supranational entities, the imposition of currency controls or other national or global political
or economic developments.
International and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability
and may not be suitable for all investors.
Investing in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable
for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained.
Small Cap stocks may be subject to a higher degree of risk than more established companies' securities. The illiquidity of the
Small Cap market may adversely affect the value of these investments.
Value investments can perform differently from the market as a whole. They can remain undervalued by the market for long
periods of time.
Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will
decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state
and local taxes may apply.
High yield/junk bonds (grade BB or below) are not investment grade securities, and are subject to higher interest rate, credit,
and liquidity risks than those graded BBB and above. They generally should be part of a diversified portfolio for sophisticated
investors.
Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and
interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.
Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and
bonds are subject to availability and change in price.
Credit Quality is one of the principal criteria for judging the investment quality of a bond or bond mutual fund. As the term
implies, credit quality informs investors of a bond or bond portfolio's credit worthiness, or risk of default.
There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio.
Diversification does not ensure against market risk.

Indexes Defintions

MSCI Emerging Markets Index
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has a base date of December 31, 1987. It is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets.
MSCI Frontier Markets Index
The MSCI Frontier Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of frontier markets. The index has been calculated since 2007.
MSCI Small Cap
The objective of the MSCI Small Cap Indices is to represent the business activities of small cap companies across developed markets. MSCI selects the most liquid securities relative to their market capitalization, and targets for index inclusion 40% of the full market capitalization of the eligible small cap universe within each industry group, within each country.
MSCI World Index
The MSCI World Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets. As of June 2007 the MSCI World Index consisted of the following 23 developed market country indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The index has been calculated since 1995.
 The MSCI Indices are maintained by Morgan Stanley Capital International/Barra
Russell 1000 Growth Index
Measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.
Russell 1000 Value Index
The Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of the large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values. . The index is a subset of the much larger Russell 3000 Index It is reconstituted annually.
Russell 2000 Index
The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. It is reconstituted annually and was launched in 1984.
Russell 2000 Growth Index
Measures the performance of those Russell 2000 companies with higher price-to book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.
 Russell 3000 Index
The Russell 3000 Index measures the performance of the largest 3000 U.S. companies representing approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market. The U.S.-based requirement disqualifies many large international firms from inclusion into the index.  It is reconstituted annually and was started in 1984.
The Russell indices are owned and maintained by Russell Investments.

Dimensional Fund Advisors is not affiliated with LPL Financial or its affliates.

This material has been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors.

Securities offered through LPL Financial. Member FINRA/SIPC.