Quarterly Market Review Q2 2016
Overview:
Market Summary - Index Returns
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: US Stock Market (Russell 3000 Index), International Developed Stocks (MSCI World ex USA Index [net div.]), Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging Markets Index [net div.]), Global Real Estate (S&P Global REIT Index), US Bond Market (Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index), and Global Bond ex US Market (Citigroup WGBI ex USA 1−30 Years [Hedged to USD]). The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved. Barclays data provided by Barclays Bank PLC. Citigroup bond indices © 2016 by Citigroup.
World Stock Market Performance
MSCI All Country World Index with selected headlines from Q2 2016
These headlines are not offered to explain market returns. Instead, they serve as a reminder that investors should view daily events from a long-term perspective and avoid making investment decisions based solely on the news.
Graph Source: MSCI ACWI Index. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved.
It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
World Stock Market Performance
MSCI All Country World Index with selected headlines from past 12 months
These headlines are not offered to explain market returns. Instead, they serve as a reminder that investors should view daily events from a long-term perspective and avoid making investment decisions based solely on the news.
Graph Source: MSCI ACWI Index. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved.
It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
World Asset Classes
Second Quarter 2016 Index Returns (%)
Looking at broad market indices, the US outperformed developed markets outside the US and emerging markets. US REITs recorded the highest returns, outperforming the broad equity market.
The value effect was positive in the US but negative in developed and emerging markets. Small caps outperformed large caps in the US but slightly underperformed in the developed and emerging markets.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved. Dow Jones data (formerly Dow Jones Wilshire) provided by Dow Jones Indexes. Barclays data provided by Barclays Bank PLC.
US Stocks
Second Quarter 2016 Index Returns
- The broad US equity market recorded positive absolute performance for the quarter.
- Value indices outperformed growth indices across all size ranges.
- Small caps outperformed large caps.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Marketwide (Russell 3000 Index), Large Cap (S&P 500 Index), Large Cap Value (Russell 1000 Value Index), Large Cap Growth (Russell 1000 Growth Index), Small Cap (Russell 2000 Index), Small Cap Value (Russell 2000 Value Index), and Small Cap Growth (Russell 2000 Growth Index). World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. Russell 3000 Index is used as the proxy for the US market. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group.
International Developed Stocks
Second Quarter 2016 Index Returns
- In US dollar terms, developed markets outside the US lagged both the US equity market and emerging markets indices during the quarter.
- Small caps slightly underperformed large caps in non-US developed markets.
- The value effect was negative in non-US developed markets using broad market indices across all size ranges.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Large Cap (MSCI World ex USA Index), Small Cap (MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Index), Value (MSCI World ex USA Value Index), and Growth (MSCI World ex USA Growth). All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. MSCI World ex USA IMI Index is used as the proxy for the International Developed market. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved.
Emerging Market Stocks
Second Quarter 2016 Index Returns
- In US dollar terms, emerging markets indices underperformed the US but outperformed developed markets outside the US.
- The value effect was negative in emerging markets using broad market indices. Large cap value indices underperformed large cap growth indices. The opposite was true among small caps: Small cap value indices outperformed small cap growth indices.
- Small cap indices slightly underperformed large cap indices in emerging markets.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Large Cap (MSCI Emerging Markets Index), Small Cap (MSCI Emerging Markets Small Cap Index), Value (MSCI Emerging Markets Value Index), and Growth (MSCI Emerging Markets Growth Index). All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index used as the proxy for the emerging market portion of the market. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved.
Select Country Performance
Second Quarter 2016 Index Returns
- New Zealand recorded the highest country performance in developed markets, while Italy and Ireland posted the lowest performance for the quarter. In emerging markets, Peru and Brazil again posted the highest country returns, while Poland and Greece recorded the lowest performance.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Country performance based on respective indices in the MSCI World ex US IMI Index (for developed markets), Russell 3000 Index (for US), and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. All returns in USD and net of withholding tax on dividends. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. UAE and Qatar have been reclassified as emerging markets by MSCI, effective May 2014.
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Second Quarter 2016 Index Returns
- US REITs had very strong positive returns for the quarter, outperforming the broad equity market. REITs in developed markets recorded positive returns, also outperforming broad developed equity markets indices.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Number of REIT stocks and total value based on the two indices. All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. Total value of REIT stocks represented by Dow Jones US Select REIT Index and the S&P Global ex US REIT Index. Dow Jones US Select REIT Index used as proxy for the US market, and S&P Global ex US REIT Index used as proxy for the World ex US market. Dow Jones US Select REIT Index data provided by Dow Jones ©. S&P Global ex US REIT Index data provided by Standard and Poor's Index Services Group © 2016.
Commodities
Second Quarter 2016 Index Returns
- Commodities were broadly positive during the quarter. The Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return gained 12.78%. Energy turned positive with natural gas gaining 30.88%, Brent crude oil 19.51%, and WTI crude oil 18.64%.
- The Softs complex was also positive with sugar gaining 29.84%, coffee 10.90%, and cotton 10.29%.
- Grains were mixed: Soybeans returned 27.68%, yet Kansas wheat and Chicago wheat declined 16.26% and 9.28%, respectively.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index is not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. Securities and commodities data provided by Bloomberg.
Fixed Income
Second Quarter 2016 Index Returns
Interest rates across the US markets generally decreased during the quarter. The yield on the 5-year Treasury note fell 20 basis points (bps) to end at 1.01%. The yield on the 10-year T-note decreased 29 bps to 1.49%. The 30-year Treasury bond declined 31 bps to finish with a yield of 2.30%.
The 1-year T-bill ended the quarter yielding 0.45% and the 2-year T-note finished at 0.58%, for declines of 14 and 15 bps, respectively. The 3-month T-bill increased 5 bps to yield 0.26%, while the 6-month T-bill dipped 3 bps to 0.36%.
Short-term corporate bonds gained 1.05%. Intermediate-term corporates returned 2.24%, while long-term corporate bonds returned 6.64%.1
Short-term municipal bonds returned 0.66%, while intermediate-term municipal bonds gained 1.84%. Revenue bonds slightly outperformed general obligation bonds.2
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. 1. Barclays US Corporate Bond Index. 2. Barclays Municipal Bond Index. Yield curve data from Federal Reserve. State and local bonds are from the Bond Buyer Index, general obligation, 20 years to maturity, mixed quality. AAA-AA Corporates represent the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporates, AA-AAA rated. A-BBB Corporates represent the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporates, BBB-A rated. Barclays data provided by Barclays Bank PLC. US long-term bonds, bills, inflation, and fixed income factor data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation (SBBI) Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). Citigroup bond indices © 2016 by Citigroup. The BofA Merrill Lynch Indices are used with permission; © 2016 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated; all rights reserved. Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated is a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation.
Global Diversification
Second Quarter 2016 Index Returns
These portfolios illustrate the performance of different global stock/bond mixes and highlight the benefits of diversification. Mixes with larger allocations to stocks are considered riskier but have higher expected returns over time.
Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Asset allocations and the hypothetical index portfolio returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual performance. Global Stocks represented by MSCI All Country World Index (gross div.) and Treasury Bills represented by US One-Month Treasury Bills. Globally diversified allocations rebalanced monthly, no withdrawals. Data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved. Treasury bills © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield).
Indexes Defintions
Index Definition:
An index is a statistical measure that shows changes in the economy or financial markets and serves as a benchmark against which economic and financial performance is measured.
Indices are not available for direct investment; its performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Barclays Capital Municipal Bond Index 3 Years
This is a broad-based market index. To be included in the index, bonds must have a minimum credit rating of Baa. They must have an outstanding par value of at least $5 million and be issued as part of a transaction of at least $50 million. The bonds must have a dated-date after December 31, 1990 and must be at least one year from their maturity date.
Barclay’s Capital US Corporate High Yield Index
This index covers the universe of fixed rate, non-investment grade debt. Pay-in-kind (PIK) bonds, Eurobonds, and debt issues from countries designated as emerging markets (e.g., Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, etc.) are excluded, but Canadian and global bonds (SEC registered) of issuers in
non-EMG countries are included. Original issue zeroes, step-up coupon structures, and 144-As are also included.
Barclays Capital US Government Bond Index Intermediate
The index comprised of all publicly issued non-convertible domestic debt of the U.S. government or any agency thereof, or any quasi-federal corporation and of corporate debt guaranteed by the U.S. government. Only notes and bonds with minimum outstanding principal of $1 million and minimum maturity of one year and maximum maturity of ten years are included.
Barclays Capital US Government Bond Index
Market value weighted index of U.S. government and government agency securities (other than mortgage securities) with maturities of one year or more.
Barclays Capital US Tips Index
The index represents securities that protect against adverse inflation and provide a minimum level of real return. To be included in this index, bonds must have cash flows linked to an inflation index, be sovereign issues denominated in U.S. currency, and have more than one year to maturity, and, as a portion of the index, total a minimum amount outstanding of 100 million U.S. dollars. TIPS stands for Treasury Inflation Protected Securities.
Citigroup World Government Bond (WGBI) Index
This index is a broad market benchmark measuring the performance of government and foreign bonds. The index includes the 22 government bond markets of Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Dow Jones US Select REIT Index
Is comprised of all publicly traded real estate investment trusts in the Dow Jones U.S. stock universe (i.e. real estate investment trusts (REITs) and real estate operating companies (REOCs) traded in the U.S). The indexes are designed to serve as proxies for direct real estate investment, in part by excluding companies whose performance may be driven by factors other than the value of real estate. Date of introduction Total Return: January 30, 1987; Price Return: December 31, 1998
The MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index)
The MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index) Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging markets. The MSCI All Country World Index includes 48 markets. The index has been calculated since 1995
MSCI EAFE
The MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada. The index has been calculated since 31 December 1969. The EAFE acronym stands for Europe, Australasia, and Far East.
MSCI Emerging Markets Index
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has a base date of December 31, 1987. It is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets.
MSCI Frontier Markets Index
The MSCI Frontier Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of frontier markets. The index has been calculated since 2007.
MSCI Small Cap
The objective of the MSCI Small Cap Indices is to represent the business activities of small cap companies across developed markets. MSCI selects the most liquid securities relative to their market capitalization, and targets for index inclusion 40% of the full market capitalization of the eligible small cap universe within each industry group, within each country.
MSCI World Index
The MSCI World Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets. As of June 2007 the MSCI World Index consisted of the following 23 developed market country indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The index has been calculated since 1995.
The MSCI Indices are maintained by Morgan Stanley Capital International/Barra
Russell 1000 Growth Index
Measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.
Russell 1000 Value Index
The Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of the large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values. . The index is a subset of the much larger Russell 3000 Index It is reconstituted annually.
Russell 2000 Index
The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. It is reconstituted annually and was launched in 1984.
Russell 2000 Growth Index
Measures the performance of those Russell 2000 companies with higher price-to book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.
Russell 3000 Index
The Russell 3000 Index measures the performance of the largest 3000 U.S. companies representing approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market. The U.S.-based requirement disqualifies many large international firms from inclusion into the index. It is reconstituted annually and was started in 1984.
The Russell indices are owned and maintained by Russell Investments.
Dimensional Fund Advisors is not affiliated with LPL Financial or its affliates.
This material has been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors.
Securities offered through LPL Financial. Member FINRA/SIPC.
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