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Quarterly Market Review Q3 2016

Overview:

Market SummarySelect Country Performance
World Stock Market PerformanceReal Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
World Asset ClassesCommodities
US StocksFixed Income
International Developed StocksGlobal Diversification
Emerging Markets Stocks 


Market Summary - Index Returns

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: US Stock Market (Russell 3000 Index), International Developed Stocks (MSCI World ex USA Index [net div.]), Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging Markets Index [net div.]), Global Real Estate (S&P Global REIT Index), US Bond Market (Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index), and Global Bond ex US Market (Citigroup WGBI ex USA 1−30 Years [Hedged to USD]). The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved. Barclays data provided by Barclays Bank PLC. Citigroup bond indices © 2016 by Citigroup.


World Stock Market Performance

MSCI All Country World Index with selected headlines from Q3 2016

These headlines are not offered to explain market returns. Instead, they serve as a reminder that investors should view daily events from a long-term perspective and avoid making investment decisions based solely on the news.
Graph Source: MSCI ACWI Index. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved.
It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.


World Stock Market Performance

MSCI All Country World Index with selected headlines from past 12 months

These headlines are not offered to explain market returns. Instead, they serve as a reminder that investors should view daily events from a long-term perspective and avoid making investment decisions based solely on the news.
Graph Source: MSCI ACWI Index. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved.
It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.


World Asset Classes

Third Quarter 2016 Index Returns (%)

Looking at broad market indices, emerging markets outperformed all other equity markets during the quarter. The US equity market lagged developed markets outside the US. US real estate investment trusts (REITs) recorded negative absolute returns and lagged the US equity market.

The value effect was negative in the US and emerging markets but positive in developed markets outside the US. Small caps outperformed large caps in the US and in developed markets outside the US but underperformed in emerging markets.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.

The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved. Dow Jones data (formerly Dow Jones Wilshire) provided by Dow Jones Indexes. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg. 


US Stocks

Third Quarter 2016 Index Returns

  • The broad US equity market recorded positive absolute performance for the quarter.
  • Value indices underperformed growth indices across all size ranges.
  • Small caps outperformed large caps.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Marketwide (Russell 3000 Index), Large Cap (S&P 500 Index), Large Cap Value (Russell 1000 Value Index), Large Cap Growth (Russell 1000 Growth Index), Small Cap (Russell 2000 Index), Small Cap Value (Russell 2000 Value Index), and Small Cap Growth (Russell 2000 Growth Index). World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. Russell 3000 Index is used as the proxy for the US market. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group.


International Developed Stocks

Third Quarter 2016 Index Returns

  • In US dollar terms, developed markets outside the US outperformed the US equity market but underperformed emerging markets indices during the quarter.
  • Small caps outperformed large caps in non-US developed markets.
  • Looking at broad market indices across all size ranges, the value effect was positive in non-US developed markets.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Large Cap (MSCI World ex USA Index), Small Cap (MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Index), Value (MSCI World ex USA Value Index), and Growth (MSCI World ex USA Growth). All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. MSCI World ex USA IMI Index is used as the proxy for the International Developed market. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved.


Emerging Market Stocks

Third Quarter 2016 Index Returns

  • In US dollar terms, emerging market indices outperformed the US market and developed markets outside the US.
  • Using broad market indices as proxies, the value effect was negative in emerging markets. Large cap value indices underperformed large cap growth indices. The opposite was true among small caps; small cap value indices outperformed small cap growth indices.
  • Large cap indices outperformed small cap indices.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Large Cap (MSCI Emerging Markets Index), Small Cap (MSCI Emerging Markets Small Cap Index), Value (MSCI Emerging Markets Value Index), and Growth (MSCI Emerging Markets Growth Index). All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index used as the proxy for the emerging market portion of the market. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved.


Select Country Performance

Third Quarter 2016 Index Returns

  • Austria and Hong Kong recorded the highest country performance in developed markets, while Singapore and Denmark posted the lowest performance for the quarter. In emerging markets, Egypt and China were the top performers, while Turkey and the Philippines recorded the lowest performance.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Country performance based on respective indices in the MSCI World ex US IMI Index (for developed markets), Russell 3000 Index (for US), and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. All returns in USD and net of withholding tax on dividends. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. UAE and Qatar have been reclassified as emerging markets by MSCI, effective May 2014.

 

Real Estate Investment Trust (REITs)

Third Quarter 2016 Index Returns

  • US REITs posted negative absolute performance for the quarter, lagging the broad equity market. REITs in developed markets recorded positive absolute returns but underperformed broad developed markets equity indices.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Number of REIT stocks and total value based on the two indices. All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. Total value of REIT stocks represented by Dow Jones US Select REIT Index and the S&P Global ex US REIT Index. Dow Jones US Select REIT Index used as proxy for the US market, and S&P Global ex US REIT Index used as proxy for the World ex US market. Dow Jones US Select REIT Index data provided by Dow Jones ©. S&P Global ex US REIT Index data provided by Standard and Poor's Index Services Group © 2016.

 

Commodities

Third Quarter 2016 Index Returns

  • Commodities were mixed for the third quarter but remained positive for the year-to-date period ending September 30, 2016. The Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return posted a -3.86% return during the quarter.
  • The softs complex led the index: Sugar gained 9.76%, cotton climbed 6.09%, and coffee was up 1.42%. Industrial metals also recorded gains, with zinc returning 12.55% and nickel 11.46%.
  • Energy fell, with natural gas declining 8.02%, brent crude oil down 2.22%, and WTI crude oil falling 4.96%. Lean hogs underperformed the most, returning -31.71%. Gold declined 0.82%.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index is not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. Securities and commodities data provided by Bloomberg.

 

Fixed Income

Third Quarter 2016 Index Returns

  • Interest rates across the US fixed income markets generally increased in the third quarter. The yield on the 5-year Treasury note rose 13 basis points (bps) to 1.14%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose 11 bps to 1.60%. The 30-year Treasury bond increased 2 bps to finish with a yield of 2.32%.
  • The 1-year Treasury bill yield rose 14 bps to 0.59%, and the 2-year Treasury note yield increased 19 bps to 0.77%. The yield on the 3-month Treasury bill rose 3 bps to 0.29%, while the 6-month Treasury bill was up 9 bps to 0.45%.
  • Short-term corporate bonds gained 0.32%. Intermediate-term corporates rose 0.89%, while long-term corporate bonds gained 2.56%.1
  • Short-term municipal bonds returned -0.21%, while intermediate-term municipal bonds were unchanged. Revenue bonds slightly outperformed general obligation bonds.2

 

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. 1. Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Bond Index. 2. Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index. Yield curve data from Federal Reserve. State and local bonds are from the Bond Buyer Index, general obligation, 20 years to maturity, mixed quality. AAA-AA Corporates represent the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporates, AA-AAA rated. A-BBB Corporates represent the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporates, BBB-A rated. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg.  US long-term bonds, bills, inflation, and fixed income factor data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation (SBBI) Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). Citigroup bond indices © 2016 by Citigroup. The BofA Merrill Lynch Indices are used with permission; © 2016 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated; all rights reserved. Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated is a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation.

 

Global Diversification

Third Quarter 2016 Index Returns

  • These portfolios illustrate the performance of different global stock/bond mixes and highlight the benefits of diversification. Mixes with larger allocations to stocks
    are considered riskier but have higher expected
    returns over time.

Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Asset allocations and the hypothetical index portfolio returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual performance. Global Stocks represented by MSCI All Country World Index (gross div.) and Treasury Bills represented by US One-Month Treasury Bills. Globally diversified allocations rebalanced monthly, no withdrawals. Data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved. Treasury bills © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield).


Important Risk Disclosures

The fast price swings in commodities and currencies will result in significant volatility in an investor's holdings.

Currency Risk -because the security invests in stocks denominated in foreign currencies, changes in currency exchange rates may negatively impact the securities return. The values of the foreign currencies may be subject to a high degree of fluctuation due to changes in interest rates, the TS-8 effects of monetary policies issued by the United States, foreign governments, central banks or supranational entities, the imposition of currency controls or other national or global political or economic developments.

International and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors.

Investing in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained.

Small Cap stocks may be subject to a higher degree of risk than more established companies' securities. The illiquidity of the Small Cap market may adversely affect the value of these investments.

Value investments can perform differently from the market as a whole. They can remain undervalued by the market for long periods of time.

Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply.

High yield/junk bonds (grade BB or below) are not investment grade securities, and are subject to higher interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks than those graded BBB and above. They generally should be part of a diversified portfolio for sophisticated investors.

Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

Credit Quality is one of the principal criteria for judging the investment quality of a bond. As the term implies, credit quality informs investors of a bond or bond portfolio's credit worthiness, or risk of default.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio.

Diversification does not ensure against market risk.

 

Indexes Defintions

Index Definition:

An index is a statistical measure that shows changes in the economy or financial markets and serves as a benchmarkagainst which economic and financial performance is measured.

 Indices are not available for direct investment; its performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

 Barclays Capital Municipal Bond Index 3 Years

This is a broad-based market index. To be included in the index, bonds must have a minimum credit rating of Baa. They must have an outstanding par value of at least $5 million and be issued as part of a transaction of at least $50 million. The bonds must have a dated-date after December 31, 1990 and must be at least one year from their maturity date.

Barclay’s Capital US Corporate High Yield Index

This index covers the universe of fixed rate, non-investment grade debt. Pay-in-kind (PIK) bonds, Eurobonds, and debt issues from countries designated as emerging markets (e.g., Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, etc.) are excluded, but Canadian and global bonds (SEC registered) of issuers in

non-EMG countries are included. Original issue zeroes, step-up coupon structures, and 144-As are also included.

 Barclays Capital US Government Bond Index Intermediate

The index comprised of all publicly issued non-convertible domestic debt of the U.S. government or any agency thereof, or any quasi-federal corporation and of corporate debt guaranteed by the U.S. government. Only notes and bonds with minimum outstanding principal of $1 million and minimum maturity of one year and maximum maturity of ten years are included.

 Barclays Capital US Government Bond Index

Market value weighted index of U.S. government and government agency securities (other than mortgage securities) with maturities of one year or more.

 Barclays Capital US Tips Index

The index represents securities that protect against adverse inflation and provide a minimum level of real return. To be included in this index, bonds must have cash flows linked to an inflation index, be sovereign issues denominated in U.S. currency, and have more than one year to maturity, and, as a portion of the index, total a minimum amount outstanding of 100 million U.S. dollars. TIPS stands for Treasury Inflation Protected Securities.

Citigroup World Government Bond (WGBI) Index

This index is a broad market benchmark measuring the performance of government and foreign bonds. The index includes the 22 government bond markets of Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Dow Jones US Select REIT Index

Is comprised of all publicly traded real estate investment trusts in the Dow Jones U.S. stock universe (i.e. real estate investment trusts (REITs) and real estate operating companies (REOCs) traded in the U.S). The indexes are designed to serve as proxies for direct real estate investment, in part by excluding companies whose performance may be driven by factors other than the value of real estate.  Date of introduction Total Return: January 30, 1987; Price Return: December 31, 1998

 The MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index)

The MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index) Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging markets. The MSCI All Country World Index includes 48 markets. The index has been calculated since 1995

MSCI EAFE

The MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada. The index has been calculated since 31 December 1969.  The EAFE acronym stands for Europe, Australasia, and Far East.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has a base date of December 31, 1987. It is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets.

MSCI Frontier Markets Index

The MSCI Frontier Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of frontier markets. The index has been calculated since 2007.

MSCI Small Cap

The objective of the MSCI Small Cap Indices is to represent the business activities of small cap companies across developed markets. MSCI selects the most liquid securities relative to their market capitalization, and targets for index inclusion 40% of the full market capitalization of the eligible small cap universe within each industry group, within each country.

MSCI World Index

The MSCI World Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets. As of June 2007 the MSCI World Index consisted of the following 23 developed market country indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The index has been calculated since 1995.

 The MSCI Indices are maintained by Morgan Stanley Capital International/Barra

Russell 1000 Growth Index

Measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.

Russell 1000 Value Index

The Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of the large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values. . The index is a subset of the much larger Russell 3000 Index It is reconstituted annually.

Russell 2000 Index

The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. It is reconstituted annually and was launched in 1984.

Russell 2000 Growth Index

Measures the performance of those Russell 2000 companies with higher price-to book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.

 Russell 3000 Index

The Russell 3000 Index measures the performance of the largest 3000 U.S. companies representing approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market. The U.S.-based requirement disqualifies many large international firms from inclusion into the index.  It is reconstituted annually and was started in 1984.

 The Russell indices are owned and maintained by Russell Investments.

Dimensional Fund Advisors is not affiliated with LPL Financial or its affliates.

This material has been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors.

Securities offered through LPL Financial. Member FINRA/SIPC.