Fourth Quarter 2018

Market Summary

Index Returns

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: US Stock Market (Russell 3000 Index), International Developed Stocks (MSCI World ex USA Index [net div.]), Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging Markets Index [net div.]), Global Real Estate (S&P Global REIT Index [net div.]), US Bond Market (Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index), and Global Bond Market ex US (Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate ex-USD Bond Index [hedged to USD]). S&P data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg.

Long-Term Market Summary

Index Returns

World Stock Market Performance

MSCI All Country World Index with selected headlines from Q4 2018

These headlines are not offered to explain market returns. Instead, they serve as a reminder that investors should view daily events from a long-term perspective and avoid making investment decisions based solely on the news.

Graph Source: MSCI ACWI Index [net div.]. MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved.
It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

World Stock Market Performance

MSCI All Coutnry World Index with selected headlines from past 12 months

World Asset Classes

Fourth Quarter 2018 Index Returns (%)

Equity markets around the world posted negative returns for the quarter. Looking at broad market indices, emerging markets outperformed developed markets, including the US.
Value stocks were positive vs. growth stocks in all markets, including the US. Small caps underperformed large caps in the US and non-US developed markets but outperformed in emerging markets.
REIT indices outperformed equity market indices in both the US and non-US developed markets.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved. Dow Jones data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. S&P data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg. Treasury bills © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield).

US Stocks

Fourth Quarter 2018 Index Returns

US equities underperformed both non-US developed and emerging markets.
Value outperformed growth in the US across large and small cap stocks.
Small caps underperformed large caps in the US.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Marketwide (Russell 3000 Index), Large Cap (Russell 1000 Index), Large Cap Value (Russell 1000 Value Index), Large Cap Growth (Russell 1000 Growth Index), Small Cap (Russell 2000 Index), Small Cap Value (Russell 2000 Value Index), and Small Cap Growth (Russell 2000 Growth Index). World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. Russell 3000 Index is used as the proxy for the US market. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved.

International Developed Stocks

Fourth Quarter 2018 Index Returns

In US dollar terms, developed markets outside the US outperformed the US equity market but underperformed emerging markets during the quarter.
Value outperformed growth across large and small cap stocks.
Small caps underperformed large caps in non-US developed markets.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Large Cap (MSCI World ex USA Index), Small Cap (MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Index), Value (MSCI World ex USA Value Index), and Growth (MSCI World ex USA Growth Index). All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. MSCI World ex USA IMI Index is used as the proxy for the International Developed market. MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes.

Emerging Market Stocks

Fourth Quarter 2018 Index Returns

In US dollar terms, emerging markets outperformed developed markets, including the US.
Value outperformed growth across large and small cap stocks.
Small caps outperformed large caps.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Large Cap (MSCI Emerging Markets Index), Small Cap (MSCI Emerging Markets Small Cap Index), Value (MSCI Emerging Markets Value Index), and Growth (MSCI Emerging Markets Growth Index). All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index used as the proxy for the emerging market portion of the market. MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes.

Select Country Performance

Fourth Quarter 2018 Index Returns

In US dollar terms, New Zealand and Hong Kong recorded the highest country performance in developed markets, while Austria and Norway posted the lowest returns for the quarter. In emerging markets, Brazil and Indonesia recorded the highest country performance, while Columbia and Pakistan posted the lowest performance.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Country performance based on respective indices in the MSCI World ex US IMI Index (for developed markets), MSCI USA IMI Index (for US), and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. All returns in USD and net of withholding tax on dividends. MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved. UAE and Qatar have been reclassified as emerging markets by MSCI, effective May 2014.

Select Currency Performance vs. US Dollar

Fourth Quarter 2018

In developed markets, currencies mostly depreciated vs. the US dollar with a few exceptions, including the Japanese yen, which appreciated over 3.5%. In emerging markets, currencies were mixed against the US dollar, ranging from +12% to –10%.

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)

Fourth Quarter 2018 Index Returns

Non- US real estate investment trusts outperformed US REITs in US dollar terms.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Number of REIT stocks and total value based on the two indices. All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. Total value of REIT stocks represented by Dow Jones US Select REIT Index and the S&P Global ex US REIT Index. Dow Jones US Select REIT Index used as proxy for the US market, and S&P Global ex US REIT Index used as proxy for the World ex US market. Dow Jones and S&P data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.

Commodities

Fourth Quarter 2018 Index Returns

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return declined 9.41% during the fourth quarter of 2018, bringing the total annual return to –11.25%.
Sugar led quarterly performance with a gain of 7.41%. Energy was the worst-performing complex, with WTI crude oil and unleaded gas declining by 37.87% and 37.78%, respectively.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index is not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
Commodities returns represent the return of the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index. Individual commodities are sub-index values of the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index. Data provided by Bloomberg.

Fixed Income

Fourth Quarter 2018 Index Returns

Interest rate changes across the US fixed income market were mixed during the fourth quarter of 2018. The yield on the 5-year Treasury note declined 43 basis points (bps), ending the quarter at 2.51%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note decreased 36 bps to 2.69%. The 30-year Treasury bond yield decreased 17 bps to finish at 3.02%. For 2018, yields on the 10-year Treasury and 30-year Treasury increased 29 bps and 28 bps, respectively.
In terms of total returns, short-term corporate bonds increased 0.78% during the quarter. Intermediate-term corporate bonds had a total return of 0.58%.
Total returns for short-term municipal bonds were 1.10% for the quarter. Intermediate-term municipal bonds returned 2.00%.

One basis point equals 0.01%. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Yield curve data from Federal Reserve. State and local bonds are from the S&P National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Index. AAA-AA Corporates represent the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporates, AA-AAA rated. A-BBB Corporates represent the ICE BofAML Corporates, BBB-A rated. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg. US long-term bonds, bills, inflation, and fixed income factor data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation (SBBI) Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). FTSE fixed income indices © 2019 FTSE Fixed Income LLC, all rights reserved. ICE BofAML index data © 2019 ICE Data Indices, LLC. S&P data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.

Global Fixed Income

Fourth Quarter 2018 Yield Curves

Interest rates in the global developed markets generally decreased during the quarter.
Longer-term bonds generally outperformed shorter-term bonds in the global developed markets.
For the year, longer-term bonds underperformed shorter-term bonds in the US but generally outperformed shorter-term bonds in the non-US developed markets.

Impact of Diversification

Fourth Quarter 2018 Index Returns

These portfolios illustrate the performance of different global stock/bond mixes and highlight the benefits of diversification. Mixes with larger allocations to stocks are considered riskier but have higher expected returns over time.

1. STDEV (standard deviation) is a measure of the variation or dispersion of a set of data points. Standard deviations are often used to quantify the historical return volatility of a security or portfolio.

Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Asset allocations and the hypothetical index portfolio returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual performance. Global Stocks represented by MSCI All Country World Index (gross div.) and Treasury Bills represented by US One-Month Treasury Bills. Globally diversified allocations rebalanced monthly, no withdrawals. Data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved. Treasury bills © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield).

Important Risk Disclosures

The fast price swings in commodities and currencies will result in significant volatility in an investor's holdings.
Currency Risk -because the security invests in stocks denominated in foreign currencies, changes in currency exchange rates may negatively impact the securities return. The values of the foreign currencies may be subject to a high degree of fluctuation due to changes in interest rates, the TS-8 effects of monetary policies issued by the United States, foreign governments, central banks or supranational entities, the imposition of currency controls or other national or global political or economic developments.
International and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors.
Investing in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained.
Small Cap stocks may be subject to a higher degree of risk than more established companies' securities. The illiquidity of the Small Cap market may adversely affect the value of these investments.
Value investments can perform differently from the market as a whole. They can remain undervalued by the market for long periods of time.
Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply.
High yield/junk bonds (grade BB or below) are not investment grade securities, and are subject to higher interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks than those graded BBB and above. They generally should be part of a diversified portfolio for sophisticated investors.
Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.
Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.
Credit Quality is one of the principal criteria for judging the investment quality of a bond or bond mutual fund. As the term implies, credit quality informs investors of a bond or bond portfolio's credit worthiness, or risk of default.
There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio.
Diversification does not ensure against market risk.

Dimensional Fund Advisors is not affiliated with LPL Financial or Guillaume & Freckman, Inc.

This material has been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors.

Securities offered through LPL Financial, member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Private Advisor Group, a registered investment advisor. Private Advisor Group and Guillaume & Freckman, Inc are separate entities from LPL Financial.